Dear Growers,
Since we gathered at this spring’s Appreciation BBQs, we have been on quite a ride, reminding us of the dynamic nature of our work and the globality of our business. Overall, California growers have experienced a good season, with price and volume performing better than expected despite unexpected swings and uncontrollable weather conditions.
We kicked off June with an industry demand reaching 53M lbs./week at a competitive $1.62/lbs. for 48s. By the end of the second week, we saw the price strengthen +$0.12/ lbs. This upward trend was met with an abrupt shutdown of Michoacán’s supply that sent prices skyrocketing as the market scooped up any available inventory to fill in the gaps. As retailers prepared for their prebooked July 4th ads, prices continued to rise, even reaching $2.10/lbs. for a couple of days. Over the 10-day Michoacán closure, California, Peru, and Colombia all saw significant increases and worked to pull ahead and meet the demand. Retailers raised July 4th promo prices significantly and the slow Mexico restart created concern amongst buyers about quality, leading many to hold off imports even after the market had reopened. The high prices softened demand to 47 – 48M lbs./week (roughly 6M less than we saw in early June).
Mexico’s new season started slowly with the “Loca” crop at approximately 8.5M lbs./avg. week due to low dry matter. This crop was balanced by volume from the “Negra” crop at approx. 18.3M lbs./avg. week. The Mexico volume was coupled with California supplying 18 – 20M lbs./week and Peru entering with 10M lbs./week. With over 60M lbs./week in the market we’ve seen prices drop. Despite that, prices are still quite solid when compared to 2023’s $1.30/lbs. for 48s at this same time.
California fruit is now estimated to exceed 300M lbs. this season, a much higher volume than the preseason estimate. Looking ahead we see imported fruit from Mexico skewing smaller, as harvests from the old crop come to an end. Volumes from California and Peru are decreasing, indicating that price stability is anticipated as we approach the end of the California season, which is expected to conclude sometime in September.
A special thanks to the contributors of this edition of The Insider: Gerardo Aldunate for his agronomy update and advisor Dr. Ben Faber for his recommendations on protecting our crops against extreme heat.
With appreciation,
Keith Blanchard
