In 2024, even when Mexico is on the sidelines, its nuanced supply chain can greatly impact the U.S. avocado market. The suspension of avocado exports from the state of Michoacán in mid-June caused prices to spike and California growers to strip the 2024 crop as fast as they could. Peru also pivoted shipments into the U.S., chasing the hole left in the market by Mexico. The lasting effect of Michoacán’s timeout has been a disruption to the U.S. avocado market. Prices and supplies were thrown out of whack, and the industry is still waiting for the impact to dissipate. In addition to Mexico and Peru, below we outline key players in the 2024 U.S. avocado market — adding Colombia and Chile — and the status of their crop this year.
2024 Country By Country Outlook
Mexico
Status — Mexico has shipped about 1.3 billion pounds of avocados into the U.S. in 2024, compared to about 1.4 billion to date in 2023. This is the second consecutive year that drought has diminished Mexico’s crop. Rain delays in Michoacán, where most avocado acreage is exclusively rain-fed, has greatly impacted fruit size and crop volume. We are watching the development of avocados from the state of Jalisco entering the U.S. According to APEAJAL, Jalisco’s avocado export group, the peak season for harvest this year has been delayed due to drought. Jalisco, which ships about half of its total exports into the U.S., remains early in its development as a major exporter, as it awaits export clearance for more of its orchards.
Projection 2024 — Overall, Mexico is projected to finish 2024 with a 2.4-billion-pound share of the U.S. market, falling short of its 2023 record U.S. export volume year of 2.5 billion pounds.
Peru
Status — Like California, Peru continues to find avocados on trees that were not included in its preseason projections. El Niño weather conditions in 2023 impacted the 2024 crop leading to the expectation that exports would be severely reduced. That outlook, however, has since been tempered to a 10% reduction year-over-year. So far this year, about 80 million pounds of Peruvian avocados have landed in the United States. Peru shipments peaked in mid-July at nearly 15 million pounds per week into the U.S.
Updated Projection 2024 — Peru sent 166 million pounds of avocados into the U.S. in 2023; shaving 10% from that would make this a 150-million-pound year.
Colombia
Status — Colombia has grown its avocado exports into the U.S. this year by shipping over 40 million pounds, beating 2023’s total of 23 million pounds. Colombia produces year round but is currently peaking at around 4 million pounds per week. To add context, Colombia never broke 1.5 million pounds in a week in 2023.
Projection 2024 — Like Peru, Colombia is setting itself up for global expansion, and it enjoys easy access to the U.S. East Coast. In 2024, the U.S. is expected to receive 68 million pounds of avocados from Colombia. Though it lags behind Peru in its annual volumes, Colombia is adding producing acres annually.
Chile
Status — Chile has only sent 300,000 pounds of avocados to the U.S. this year and topped out at 11 million pounds last year. It simply hasn’t been a game changing contributor of avocados into the U.S.
Projections — Chile enjoys a niche season in the U.S., September through December, just after California and Peru typically hang their hats for the season. Chile’s reduced supply and strong domestic demand will divert produce away from export markets. The avocados that do make it to export are most likely to be shipped to the E.U.
